tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7907752.post8516477633672115632..comments2024-03-27T07:18:39.229-05:00Comments on In Medias Res: How to Stop This Man?Unknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7907752.post-86588572971861449232018-01-25T02:58:14.177-06:002018-01-25T02:58:14.177-06:001) what to do about Flake? serious question: do ...1) what to do about Flake? serious question: do we need to "do" anything? there won't be a lot of Flakes going forward, and whether or not they have much influence is sort of orthogonal to whatever Democrats do. I guess you could argue that Dem resistance on the health care bill helped flip McCain, but I'd want to see some evidence of that. I'm in the camp that thinks McCain did it out of pure spite -- it's consistent with his known behavior -- and anyway our resistance didn't depend on knowing he was going to bolt; we didn't.<br /><br />talking about Republican elected officials here. NeverTrump Republican "thinkers" are something else again. from David Frum through Kagan to George Will, there are a lot of these guys -- they're almost all guys, of course -- and there might be some fruitful areas of potential cooperation there. <br /><br />but elected Republican officials? short list, and you'll notice most of them are retiring anyway. <br /><br />2) I'm not sure I agree. first, I disagree that congressional Republicans would be happy to see Trump impeached. yeah, Pence would probably be better, but (from their POV) Trump is actually pretty okay, and impeachment would be very damaging to the brand. look what happened to the congressional GOP in November 1974.<br /><br />second, even if they do want to see him impeached, losing the House hurts like hell. being in the minority is just a lot less fun. before you get to 3D chess you have to get past that.<br /><br />and third, from a Dem point of view Pence is just about as bad as Trump. so, the obvious Dem strategy would be to slow-walk impeachment, dragging out investigations and hearings all through 2019 for maximum pain and impact. pretty sure the GOP can make that same calculation. <br /><br />this is testable. predictions: the Congressional GOP will continue to be publicly supportive of Trump, _pace_ a few exceptions, most of whom will be retiring. actual policy disputes with the White House will be rare, and when they do happen, it'll typically be because of Trump (changed his mind, was vague or contradictory, etc.) not the Congressional GOP. public criticism of Trump by Reps or Senators will occasionally happen, but (again _pace_ Flake and a couple of others) will mostly be (a) driven by particular outrages (i.e. Charlottesville) rather than general critiques of his Presidency, and also (b) muted, pro forma, and not sustained. cooperation will continue, and GOP distaste for Trump will not be in any way a limiting factor. <br /><br />we can check back in six months and see how this is holding up.<br /><br /><br />Doug M.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7907752.post-68060161046898040782018-01-22T09:06:23.231-06:002018-01-22T09:06:23.231-06:00Doug,
Well, as I said, there aren't really an...Doug,<br /><br />Well, as I said, there aren't really any new insights here; much of what we're seeing at the moment is pretty predictable (given the basics of the utterly outlandish situation we're in). <br /><br />As regards your 1), obviously that explains most Republican members of Congress, and most Republican voters nationwide as well. The question which sparked the whole conversation was about those exceptions like Flake: sure, we think they're doing the right thing, but is the right thing they're doing actually <i>praiseworthy</i>? Is it <i>helping</i>? We know what Democrats (and liberals, progressives, socialists, Greens, etc.) need to do, but what do we do about the Flakes of the world? That's the question.<br /><br />As regards your 2), I actually kind of disagree; I think it is already more than apparent that to nearly every GOP member of Congress that, while Trump-as-Republican-president is better than no-Republican-president--I mean, they've gotten some stuff done--Pence-as-Republican-president would be much better. As long as they control the House, moving in that direction would electorally risking with their respective bases. But I really do think at least a few of them (<i>maybe even Ryan?!?</i>) actually <i>want</i> the Republicans to take control and initiate impeachment proceedings, so they can wash their hands of the guy. Indeed, to go totally three-level chess here, I can easily imagine Republicans behind the scenes pushing for impeachment, as a way to salvage their brand prior to 2020, while it is Democrats who actually want to go slow, because they'll still want Trump in office to hang on Republicans' neck in November.Russell Arben Foxhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03366800726360134194noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7907752.post-36025243194732259862018-01-22T08:25:55.704-06:002018-01-22T08:25:55.704-06:001) in terms of policy, Trump is governing as a Re...<br />1) in terms of policy, Trump is governing as a Republican, albeit a weird and (to most non-Republicans) off-putting one. why should Republicans turn on him? most of them feel that the damage to the Republic is either exaggerated, or worth it (Supreme Court!), or both.<br /><br />2) additional dynamic: Republicans are now starting to fear that they'll lose the House in November. that means they have a steadily closing window in which to get stuff done. a blue House not only would shut down Republican legislative efforts, it would also launch investigations and hearings that would dramatically reduce the administration's room for maneuver. that means they should be closing ranks behind Trump, not attacking him. <br /><br />and this is exactly what is happening. the exceptions like Flake are just that -- exceptions.<br /><br /><br />Doug M.<br /><br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com